Bitcoin price for the past six months...
With only 1.9 million unmined coins left, Bitcoin is becoming "semi-deterministic" in predictive terms. We can extrapolate several trends with some confidence, such as Bitcoin miner profit and loss...
- Energy use will probably keep rising
- Energy cost will probably keep rising
- Halving function will cut income by 50% in early 2024
- Price volatility has fallen in the past six months
- A likely recession in 2023
These trends imply a doomed future for Bitcoin miners and by extension, Bitcoin. This "semi-deterministic" change may explain the "stair-step" behavior in the first graph. As time passes, the market becomes more confident of outcome and slowly adjusts towards final price.