I've made a contrarian call against a collapse in house prices for the past two years and been right so far, based on this model which assumes we are in a transition period from a deflationary to inflationary cycle:

New price high in December so I'm still right and gold price and physical movements strongly indicate further inflation. I cashed out my blue State house one year ago but replaced it with essentially a two-year call option on my red State house, up about 9% so far. I do expect a RE crash in several of the blue cities soon.

US Home Prices Accelerated To New Record High In December (Except Tampa Again!)
Congrats to The Fed, 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices…
ZeroHedgeTyler Durden