I think Russia won the Ukraine war many weeks ago but both sides had reasons to obfuscate it. If Russia emerges as the winner, NATO is forced to defend or surrender Ukraine. And Russia would face NATO forces, putting tactical nukes into play. So both sides muddied the waters until now.
Let's put a few clues together.
1) Public announcement of satellite phone distribution to US Senators.
2) Constant media stories of the "Ukraine counteroffensive" which now appears to be mostly support to local discontents in Belgorod. Translation: no offensive is coming.
3) Rumors that some of Ukraine's top leadership were killed in recent bombings.
4) Three Ilyushin Il-96-300 aircraft sent to China, two configured as mobile command posts. This data point interests me because it makes sense to move strategic assets out of country to avoid a 1st strike.
5) Rumors of Continuity of Government orders for May 27th, 2023.
6) Rumors of a direct NATO offensive around Memorial Day. I wouldn't be surprised by a Russian tactical nuking before or during such an offensive.