addendum 04/20/2003:  Bitcoin has shown excessive confirmation time for the past eight days, nearly making a new high today.  This could be the start of a systemic meltdown.   Something is up.

A revisit of Confirmation Rate from three days ago. Bitcoin energy usage rose another 5 terawatts...

What interests me more is the delay in transaction confirmations, it's the seventh day of unusually high congestion which I've been expecting.  The last similar congestion was May of 2021 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $67K (peak bubble).

Bitcoin is burning more energy and running more transactions but the price is slightly lower.  

Previous income calculation:

  • Income: 330K coins X $30,500 = $10 billion
  • Cost: 140 terawatts x $0.09/kwatt = $12.6 billion

New income calculation:

  • Income: 330K coins X $28,100 = $9.3 billion
  • Cost: 145 terawatts x $0.09/kwatt = $13 billion