A simpler calculation for the Bitcoin Epitaph.
- Bitcoin consumes 150 terawatt hours of power per year
- Average cost per kilowatt is $0.08 in China and rising.
- Annual energy cost is $12 billion.
- 330,000 coins mined per year.
- $21,000 per coin
- Annual income is $6.9 billion.
$12 billion - $6.9 billion = $5.1 billion loss.
The Bitcoin network is collectively losing $5 billion per year while heading into an environment of rising energy costs and recession. In early 2024, the Bitcoin algorithm reduces mined coins to half so at the current price, the annual loss would almost double to $8.4 billion.
Calculating backwards shows that break even was at $36K in May, 2022. Collectively the industry has lost $1.25 billion so far.
I used the average cost of electricity in China because many miners were located there, but today about 1/3rd are in the US which had a rock-bottom cost in 2021 of $0.075 in Louisiana, now at $0.12. So I'm pretty sure the average rate is closer to $0.11 than $0.08, with a respective $9.6 billion annual loss.