Conspiracies are a function of information, or more precisely, a lack of information. Let's define a quantitative test for a conspiracy.

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two or more conspirators who share some information
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at least one victim who is excluding from that information
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conspirators profit in some way from the victim's ignorance

Now we'll test our theory out. A man is cheating on his wife. Is this a conspiracy?

  • Two or more conspirators? Yup, the man and the mistress.
  • A unknowing victim? Yup, the hapless wife.
  • A profit motive? Yup, the man and the mistress are getting something.

Bing! We have a conspiracy. Now you go try it on something suspicious like a presidential news conference or public statements about COVID!