Federal Interest Payments, Redux
My previous commentary on dysfunctions with the Federal Interest Payment website. The data was finally updated after 205 days but other suspicions arose.
Rate of increase in interest payments fell in the last two quarters, in spite of an additional $1.1 trillion in debt ($32.3T to $33.4T) and refinancing of existing debt from 2.6% rate to 4.25%.
The average yield doesn't capture the 10-year yield hitting 5% in October.
You can create a temporary reduction by rolling over recurring debt only until interest rates rise to 5% and then monetizing the remainder. This creates future inflation but hey, maybe nobody will notice until after the November election!
There's your investment model. Arbitrage the 10-year yield in a zigzag zone between 4.5% and 5% because Federal Reserve is trapped in a reactive pattern as long-term inflation rises, which I predicted one year ago and two years ago. The "non-existent" Kondratieff wave in action.