Inversion

Key Treasury yield curve hits deepest inversion since 1981
Key Treasury yield curve hits deepest inversion since 1981

1981-82 was the "Reagan Recession" and if you believe in the K-wave (Credit Cycle) , also the transition from an inflationary upcycle to a deflationary downcycle.  The current environment is probably the K-wave inversion, a transition back from deflation to inflationary cycle.   There's an overhang of $30+ trillion on the Federal government and wars are generally inflationary, the UK experienced 100% inflation during WW1 and 65% inflation in US during the Revolutionary War.

Many people expect a repeat of the deflationary recessions of 2001 and 2008 but I expect something closer to the recessions of 1973-5 and 1980-2 due to the K-wave transition.

Check out real estate prices during the 1970s -



No real estate crash in 1974-5 or 1980-82, hey?  Federal Reserve will have to make a decision soon.  Enforce the value of money and start a Great Depression or print more money (and support real estate prices).   Notice the last time money supply contracted... 1929, exactly one K-wave cycle ago.