Bitcoin 2024 Halving

Many investors are excited by the upcoming coin halving in 1st Quarter of 2024. They believe the halving will trigger a price rise so they're buying now in anticipation. In 2022, Bitcoin miners lost $1.25 billion per quarter and close to half of them went bankrupt.

Let's revisit our Bitcoin energy equation. Energy consumption is currently estimated at 132 terawatts. Lowest commercial electricity cost is $0.084 but it's an outlier, a more accurate estimate is $0.095 (average cost is $0.125). And 165,000 bitcoins will be available. Assume Bitcoin at $40K, although I believe that's unlikely.

Income: $40K x 165,000 coins = $6.6 billion
Energy cost: 132 twatts @ $0.095/kwatt = $12.54 billion

Surviving miners could lose $6 billion in 2024 instead of $4-5 billion. I expect a big selloff after the coin halving as too many people are buying on rumor and will sell on the news.