Bitcoin Stairs

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Bitcoin price for the past six months...

With only 1.9 million unmined coins left, Bitcoin is becoming "semi-deterministic" in predictive terms.  We can extrapolate several trends with some confidence, such as Bitcoin miner profit and loss...

  • Energy use will probably keep rising
  • Energy cost will probably keep rising
  • Halving function will cut income by 50% in early 2024
  • Price volatility has fallen in the past six months
  • A likely recession in 2023

These trends imply a doomed future for Bitcoin miners and by extension, Bitcoin.   This "semi-deterministic" change may explain the "stair-step" behavior in the first graph.   As time passes, the market becomes more confident of outcome and slowly adjusts towards final price.